Among its many intricately interlinked challenges, Africa faces burgeoning cities and increasing numbers of rural mouths to feed. But these challenges are not insurmountable: With agriculture at the core of the continent’s economic transformation, Africa has the potential to become a global agricultural powerhouse and a net exporter of food.
*Stephen Pickup, Head of Agriculture at Traditum Private Equity, co-authored this publication.
US$1 trillion
Africa’s food and agriculture market could increase from US$280 billion a year in 2023 to US$1 trillion by 2030
Africa has 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land. The agriculture sector accounts for 35 percent of Africa’s GDP and employs more Africans than any other sector. So why does Africa spend a staggering US$78 billion of scarce foreign currency on food imports each year, with some countries such as Zimbabwe, Guinea and Sudan exceeding 100 percent of their annual foreign currency receipts? Why in 2020 did more than 20 percent of Africans face hunger—a figure twice as high as any other region in the world? Why is it that approximately 80 percent of the continent’s food supply still comes from small-scale farmers, many still practicing subsistence agriculture?
The 2030 Agenda adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on September 25, 2015, notes the need to “devote resources to developing rural areas and sustainable agriculture and fisheries…”; to “account for population trends in national, rural and urban development strategies and policies”; to “increase investment in rural infrastructure, agricultural research”; and to “support positive economic, social and environmental link between urban, peri-urban and rural areas”. Agricultural aspirations for Africa are set out further by the African Union (AU) “Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want,” which calls for accelerated agricultural growth and transformation, leading to shared prosperity and improved livelihoods. Although such global and pan-African statements of intent are crucial, they must be followed by concrete national regulations and policies if African agriculture is to attract the scale of investment required to become a net exporter of food.
With agriculture at the core of Africa’s economic transformation, the continent has the potential to become a global agricultural powerhouse and a net exporter of food
Among many other intricately interlinked challenges, Africa faces burgeoning cities and increasing numbers of rural mouths to feed. Between 1990 and 2021, the rural population of sub-Saharan Africa experienced a shift in both proportion and magnitude. While the percentage of the rural population decreased from 72 percent to 58 percent over the period, the actual number of rural residents increased significantly, surging from 374.5 million to 687 million.
These challenges are not insurmountable, though. Africa has the potential to be a global agricultural powerhouse and a net exporter of food, with agriculture being a core driver of the continent’s economic transformation. According to the African Development Bank, Africa’s food and agriculture market could increase from US$280 billion a year in 2023 to US$1 trillion by 2030. But what would it take for Africa to emerge as a prominent global agricultural force? There are six levers that, when applied collectively, can trigger the agricultural renaissance in Africa that is necessary to achieve this vision.
